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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd