A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
